More incentives

Incentives also will play a greater role. As the Detroit 3 and Hyundai-Kia gain ground and fuel prices decline, the uneasy summer marketing cease-fire is ending. Industry average incentives inched up $101 in September to $2,716, said Toprak, who expects more targeted incentives in the months ahead.

GM's Johnson has said for months that Toyota and Honda rejoining the game would help all automakers by signaling to idle buyers that there are deals available. Last week Carter said Toyota not only would continue 0 percent financing on all 2011 models in October but it also would add "a tremendous amount" of advertising.

"You'll see us use both [incentives and advertising], but we will lead with our new product and marketing messages to let consumers know how much new product we're bringing to the market," he said.

Ford is increasing supplies of the Focus, Fusion and Fiesta to meet anticipated sales growth.

"We continue to see a restocking of inventories and increase in merchandising throughout the industry," said Erich Merkle, Ford sales analyst.

"Despite everything that's been thrown at us this year, auto sales continue to be one of the few economic bright spots," Carter said, adding that auto sales are back "on track to hit our initial forecast of 12.5 million vehicles -- and with a strong fourth-quarter push from Toyota, the industry should actually do a little better than that."

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